Quote:
Originally Posted by juswan2knwu
I wldn't advise on yen as its kind of (weakly) tied 2 USD. Jap economic nt tat happening lik it was used 2 (though Jap market outlk doing well nw). Hwevr, personally feel is tat their electronic sector shld be performing better than previously due 2 better quality & branding which is apparent in china market.
SGD$ is nw quite lw, has been slipping against EUR & other emerging countries, so i tk we shld hold our grd @ the moment. We hav >USD$130 billions foreign reserves, SG govt wld be able 2 hold our grd in defending the currencies. (Tis 1 nt meant 4 U, 84gunner) 
Yuan$ prospect oso quite gd (in the lng term) as Chinese market lk set 2 soar. In defensive position, shldn't be 2 volatile as Chinese gt >USD$1 trillion foreign reserves. Hwevr, if there's a market turmoil, chinese is going 2 gt the worst as their stock has been ovr-bullish (almost) w/o taking any "breather" or real depth. Most of their investment, esp. fm domestic source(s) R speculative & w/o enough substance 2 bk the rise.
USD$ oso attractive in the (short term) sense tat it has kept slipping & CPI (aka inflation) is upping, so interest rates will hav 2 go up sooner or later, making their bonds attractive, esp. during a market turmoil (which shldn't be 2 far). Hwevr, no need 2 rush as interest rates has nt been reflected properly & stocks lks likely 2 remain bullish 4 another >=1 yr. Tis is a bit risky option as its US govt. policy 2 pressure other countries 2 allw USD reflects its true value. Any drop in currencies will (hopefully) mak its way bk 2 their GDP.
EUR$ R 2 $$ nw, unless wan 2 hold lng term (or lik U, since already getting paid in EUR, so jus need 2 hold)
If gt aplenty of spare $$, wld advise some hedging on commdities instead, e.g. gold.
Jus my 2 sens worth.  |
Yr observation & analysis is pretty good.
But I dun normally like 2 look too far into the longer term, esp in this era where the world & market changes is getting more volatile, economic cycles are getting shorter. I'd be doing investments for few months, unless I see the sector or market having potential for the next > 1 - 2 years.
Similar to yr views, I'd think shorting USD, longing EUR, CNY in the next few months is still ok, probably up till June07. After tat, gotta depend on the situation then.
The other option is, since interest rate is on the high side now, go into Foreign Currencies fixed deposit at fixed rate, ie. <= 12 months contract. But of course, the risk is the exchange rate between now & maturity, whether tat currency's rate has more potential for uptrend or downtrend. NZD can be pretty volatile, but interest rate oso quite high.